Why Writers Are Great At Predicting Plot Twists

May 14, 2018

On Twitter the other day, I was lamenting the fact that sometimes it’s hard to turn my writer brain off while I’m reading, or watching TV. Even when I’m not actively analysing the stories I’m consuming, I find myself guessing plot twists, or making surprisingly accurate predictions about the course the story will take. Quite a lot of writers seem to have this problem too. We’ve almost too good at figuring out the surprise reveals ahead of time, or guessing the villain before they’ve been properly identified.

I’ve been thinking a lot about why it is that we’re so freakishly good at this. Part of it, I think, is because, as writers, it’s our business to study stories and plot. We read craft books that break down plot structure. We wrestle our own books into a logical series of progression. We read up on foreshadowing and character development. We have a huge wealth of knowledge stored in our brains, and that colours the way we see the stories we consume.

Another reason why we’re so good at predicting how stories will go is because we we train our brains to analyse plots. All those hours we spend piece together our own plots and filling plot hours, brainstorming a logical course of events, it all trains our minds to analyse plots. That’s not something that can be switched off easily. Even when we’re not thinking about it, our brains are analysing the story and figuring out what should happen next. Your subconscious is fantastic at this. Ever accurately figured out a plot twist without seeming to have any basis for it? That’s your subconscious putting the tiny clues together and making predictions.

We’re also very, very good at spotting patterns. As writers, it’s part of our job to consume a lot of stories. The more stories we consume, the more we start to pick up on patterns between them. We get good at spotting familiar formulas and plot points, or character arcs. As soon as we identify one of these patterns, we have a pretty good basis for making an accurate prediction.

And lastly, we are smart and curious. We want to put these pieces together. We want to know what happens next. I think most people have a bit of a guess at what’s going to happen next. We just so happen to have a few advantages that give us a headstart. Our writer brains might not ever shut up and let us just enjoy the story as it unfolds, but they’re also super smart and good at figuring things out. If they weren’t, we wouldn’t exactly be any good at our jobs. So while it can be frustrating sometimes figuring those plot twists out way ahead of time, we do have the comfort of knowing that this is because we are smart and we know stories. We are writers. It’s part of what we do.

Do you struggle to turn your writer brain off? Do you ever find yourself guessing the big reveal or end of a movie ahead of time? Let’s chat!

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About Me

Hi, I’m Imogen Elvis.
Indie Author ✍️
Book Lover  
📚Reading and writing all things YA fantasy/sci-fi.  
My new book THE IRON WINTER (2023) is out now!

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